The natural development of an economic model for the Baltic countries is an integrated process that is determined by political rather that economic reality. A quarter of a century after these countries gained economic independence (which existed long before August 1991), we can put Baltic economic developments into perspective.

Russian and foreign analysts always hit a wall when trying to view the economic development of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania from both neo-Keynesian and neoclassical standpoints. Why? Because after 1991, the economy of the Baltics was harshly dictated by political reasons. The basis for the Baltic economic model were separatism and nationalism rather than balance and efficiency.[1]In reality. this European-looking model is not what it seems.

Prior to Perestroyka, the economic situation of the Baltic nations within the Soviet Union used to be as follows: in 1986, the fixed asset value was 5875 rubles for every Soviet citizen. This figure had noticeable disproportion throughout the country: on one hand, it made 8007 rubles in Estonia, 6923 rubles in Latvia, 6111 rubles in Lithuania; on the other hand, there was as low as 5500 rubles per citizen in Belorussia, 4500 rubles in Moldavia, 3823 rubles in Azerbaijan and 2291 rubles in Tajikistan.

The republics found themselves to be divided by a growing salary gap. In 1940, workers and employees’ salaries in different republics saw a maximum dispersion of 10 rubles. Then it reached 21 rubles in 1960, 33 rubles in 1970, and as high as 78 rubles in 1988. The contrasts looked even more striking in agriculture, with the difference between the top and bottom kolkhoz members’ salaries making 74 rubles in 1970 and 159  rubles in 1989.[2]It is worth noting that the Lithuanian, Latvian and Estonian Soviet Republics were holding the lead.

“Production reconstruction and enhancement process in the Baltic countries showed a faster rate than elsewhere in the Soviet Union, mainly due to the fact the Latvia and Estonia were reserves of qualified workforce for the whole Soviet state.  Moreover, infrastructure in the Baltic region was almost intact during the war».[3]

The share of Baltic population with over 300 rubles of total income was the biggest in 1990. The national average for the whole USSR equaled 8.8 percent while reaching 19.8 percent in Estonia, 14.5 percent in Latvia and 13.8 percent in Lithuania. The poverty rate in these republics was also among the lowest, people with 75-ruble income making 1 percent of the whole Estonian and Latvian population and 1.2 percent of Lithuanians, whereas it was republics with the highest poverty headcount that developed into the severest autocracies in post-Soviet era.[4]

Since this region was the most efficient from the investment point of view, Moscow sought to allocate new industrial facilities here.  Compared to other regions, it took less time to master production in the Baltics.

The share of new fixed assets in the Baltic republics was higher that the USSR average, with more up-to-date and less obsolete facilities and technology. Agriculture showed a similar picture: kolkhozes and sovkhozes were distributed fertilizers, machinery, forage, imported elite breeding cattle, etc. on more favorable terms.

In the early 1990s, Vilnius, Riga and Tallinn provided much similar models of economic development in the form of regional cost-accounting plans. The Baltic nations, yet Soviet at the time, viewed the future reforms  based on their nostalgic, and sometimes inadequate, ideas and memories of what the so-called ‘first republics’ used to be. The mythology of their past played a key role in their denial of the present life within the USSR. It was as early as 1991 when we used to point out the importance of the Soviet heritage in the later economic development of the countries.[5] Later this idea was multiply referred to and developed in a number of academic papers.[6]L. Grigoriev and his fellow contributors believe that ‘the Baltic countries boasted the best starting conditions (compared to other post-Soviet states) for building a market economy, with huge innovational potential was accumulated there. The region was more like a laboratory where improved Soviet economic models were tested. The Baltic republics always enjoyed a privileged status among others, as seen from the investment figures of 1970–1980: the investment volume per capita was the highest.‘

The leaders of the Baltic ‘people’s fronts’ were not experts in market laws and could not estimate the real value of the national resources since they all were previously living in a centralized state-controlled planned economy, where one single center was busy allocating funds as well as distributing the product.

After having seized power, the newly formed elite had to deal with the opposition which was all concentrated around key Soviet industrial facilities. Such factories and plants as Latvian VEF, RAF, Alfa or Estonian Dvigatel, Eesti Kabel, Kreenholm comprised the core and the basis of the opposition. Disrupting these would put an end to opposition. Low competitiveness of these firms was another pretext for de-industrialization. This process would also result in weaker trade union movement and potentially less social packages. However, Estonian and Latvian reformers (and their congenial Russian counterparts) acted in a different way, saying that “the destruction of what is unsustainable is not an argument against, but in support of the transformation”.[7]

Despite these facts, the biggest companies in the Baltics states were still those of the Soviet heritage as late as in 1997.

Table 1.  The Biggest Latvian Industrial Companies (according to the number of employed)[8]

Table 2. The Biggest Lithuanian Industrial Companies (according to the number of employed).

Table 3. The Biggest Estonain Industrial Companies (according to the number of employed).

The privatization of the Soviet heritage was greatly positive for the Baltic economies, encouraging progressive growth all through the most troublesome period of early 1990s.

At that very time, financial and monetary reforms took place in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. A strong and stable national currency safeguards a nation’s independence and economic stability. In the Baltic nations, deficit-free budget has become the strategic goal one was desperately trying to achieve. This cost the countries a lot, with serious budget limitations introduced especially affecting the social sphere. Borrowing was not even taken to account as a possible solution, until in recent years. By this time, however, the national financial systems have de jure seized to exist. One fact is worth noting in relation to this circumstances: when visiting Vilnius on Jan 14, 2015, Donald Tusk, Chairman of the European Council (Poland’s ex-Prime Minister) called euro adoption in Latvia ‘a historic moment’[9]. No one was curious then, though,  why Mr. Tusk had done his best in his country for this ‘historic moment’ to be avoided there.

The fact is that joining the European Union had a relatively narrow effect on Baltic nations, since these countries already had the right to sell 60- to 65 percent of its commodities on a duty-free basis while being associated partners of the EU. Moreover, since 2001 industrial commodity trade there has been totally duty-free.[10]

Liberalism can be called the second cornerstone of the Estonian economic policy, meaning renunciation of protectionism, free and toll-free trade with neighbors (alcohol, tobacco and some other goods excluded), and relatively low taxes (business tax rate is 26%). This kind of approach encourages saturation of inner market and comparatively low prices, as well as foreign investment and cargo flow growth, which are per capita higher than in Russia. However, this approach creates certain obstacles. Taking into account the protectionist and discriminating fee policy currently maintained by other countries, the inner market stays vulnerable as Estonian-made goods are not competitive enough. This leads to the domination of imported goods, making it harder for its own producers to develop, especially in agriculture.

The third important point is fast, successful reforms in agrarian and  municipal sphere, as well as housing and utilities.

The economic recession during the transformation crisis was deep in the Baltic nations: the economy fell –35% in Estonia, –49% in Lithuania and –52% in Latvia. IEstonia was the first to cope with its consequences in 2001 and reach the pre-crisis level of 1989. The result was its GDP growing 158 percent of this base. Economic progress of Latvia and Lithuania was not that impressive: 115 and 111% respectively.[11]

The comprehension of the complicated development processes and the acknowledgement of initial mistakes in reforming become (though still not frequently) the subject for discussions among the economists in the Baltic counries.[12]Before 2008, such discussions were yet not acceptable in the ‘Baltic tiger’ countries that showed 7 to 9 percent growth each year. There was not much talk of the 12 to 19 percent decrease at the time. Instead, the fact that the country survived the 2008-2009 crisis was treated as a true success story.[13]

Table 4. GDP Growth, %.

The Baltic countries’ dependency on Russian oil and gas and energy supply was a serious challenge for Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia, as well as the fact that the three were included in the Soviet-era cargo transportation system in which cargo flows from their sea ports were eastbound. The result was that the Baltic region obtained a predominant status of a  transitional, by-pass cargo hub. Russia is Latvia’s third largest trade partner, with 10 percent of its trade operations, and Estonia’s fourth biggest trade partner (with 8.4%). Speaking of Lithuania, Russia is number one partner for the country, holding 25% of all trade volume, which is three times higher than with Lithuania’s second biggest partner, Germany (8.4%).[17]However, a shrinking trade volume with Russia has also tended to cause macroeconomic decrease. Unlike in 2013, in 2014 Estonia was the third among the Baltic states as far as GDP growth is concerned. Annual GDP growth was 2.4% in Latvia, 2,9% in Lithuania and 1,8% in Estonia[18]. These figures may look optimistic in present-day Europe, but they will never allow, as people used to say in the USSR, ‘to catch up and overtake’ any other EU country – except for Greece, perhaps.

Expert say that the total exports from the Baltic countries to Russia may fall 18 to 25 percent in 2015, resulting in $780 million deficit for Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, however, their growth is expected to lose 1.3 to 1.7 percent less that last year. In terms of money, the countries are about to lose $1.58 billion[19]. Isthissum critical? Let’s see: the estimated budget revenue in 2015 is about 7.25 billion euros for Latvia[20], same for Estonia and a little more for Lithuania. Apparently, 250 million euros for each country is big money.

To summarize the above, the economic model that was built in the Baltic countries is economically viable, at least on the mid-term horizon. IF the outer conditions are relatively stable, one can predict a 1.5 to 2.0 GDP growth. In case military and infrastructural expenditures grow, the real income growth will be close to zero. Stagnation of exports and decrease in transit will contribute to destabilization of the economies in the region.

However, the real problem lies elsewhere. The fact that real historical problems of the past are constantly emphasized helps to preserve anti-Russian sentiments on the level of the elite, that tends to capitalize, politically and even financially while encouraging and practicing Russophobic rhetoric. The window of opportunities for co-operation with Russia is constantly shrinking. The Baltic elites preferred to stay away from consistent solution-seeking process and take part in political, rather than economic, discussions. One of the reasons for this (which has never mentioned before, nor will be in the foreseeable future) is that no elite in the Baltics is free to choose its political agenda. In this context, the Baltic countries are quite similar to Belarus rather than Poland or Russia.

There is an opinion that is often heard in the economist community, that European economic development has been derailed. In the past, we knew that politics and economy interact dialectically; nowadays, economy simply becomes a tool for policy to achieve its goals. The golden age of the European economy that lasted from the 1950s till about 2007, has come to an end. European growth will no longer be 3-5 percent, and this situation will take place until the whole political and economic paradigm is changed.

The brilliant success of European integration is obvious. Europeanist ideas that resurrected after WWII have proved to be robust and viable. However, new challenges of 2008-2015 put an end to the  model of development which our European home had. This is true for the Baltic nations which are fully dependent on both European and their own model of development.

[1] Шадрин А. Экономический фактор политики сепаратизма в республиках Советской Прибалтики // КМЦ Прикладной этнографии Института этнологии и антропологии РАН Москва, 1996.

[2] Агафонов Н.Т, Литовка О.П, Исляев Р.А. Государственная стратегия регионального развития России: смена парадигмы территориальной организации общества СПб 1998 с.39

[3]Misiunas R. Taagepera R. The Baltic States: Year of dependence 1940-1980 L. 1983 р.104

[4] Гареева Н. Э.,  Шкель С. Н. Теория модернизации и социально-экономические факторы демократизации в контексте политических трансформаций на постсоветском пространстве
http://gisap.eu/ru/teoriya-modernizatsii-i-sotsialno-ekonomicheskie-faktory-demokratizatsii-v-kontekste-politicheskikh

[5] Межевич Н.М. Геополитическое положение Эстонской ССР: мифы и реальность // Политическая география и современность. Региональные и прикладные аспекты: Л.ЛГУ, 1991

[6] Самонис В. Трансформация литовской экономики: от Москвы к Вильнюсу и от плана

к рынку. Варшава: CASE, 1995; Григорьев, Л.М. Конкуренция и сотрудничество: экономические перспективы Восточной Балтики Москва 2005.

[7] Путь в Европу // Под. общ. ред. И. М. Клямкина и Л. Ф. Шевцовой. М.: Новое издательство. 2008. С. 39.

[8] Берзиньш Ингус Они дают нам работу[8] http://www.baltic-course.com/archive/rus/13/reyting.htm Дата обращения 11.03.2015

[9] Руководство ЕС приветствовало вступление Литвы в еврозону http://dw.de/p/1EKhU

15.01.2015

[10] Бройсс Ф. Макроэкономические последствия расширения ЕС для его старых и новых членов // Проблемы теории и практики управления. 2003. № 5. С. 29.

[11] Актуальные вопросы мировой экономики: 2010 – 2012. Под общей редакцией Григорьева Л.М., Иващенко А.С. Балтийский форум 2012 с.53

[12]Grigas A., Kasekamp A., Maslauskaite K., Zorgenfreija L., “The Baltic states in the EU: yesterday, today and tomorrow” // Studies & Reports No 98, Notre Europe – Jacques Delors Institute, July 2013.

[13]Dudzińska Kinga  The Baltic States’ Success Story in Combating the Economic Crisis: Consequences for Regional Cooperation within the EU and with Russia // POLICY PAPER

No. 6 (54), POLSKI INSTYTUT SPRAW MIEDZYNARODOWYCH March 2013

[14] RAA012: SISEMAJANDUSE KOGUPRODUKT JA KOGURAHVATULU (KVARTALID) // Eesti Statistika andmebaas. URL: http://pub.stat.ee/px-web.2001/dialog/varval.asp?ma=RAA012&ti=SISEMAJANDUSE+KOGUPRODUKT+JA+KOGURAHVATULU+%28KVARTALID%29&path=../database/Majandus/15Rahvamajanduse_arvepidamine/06Sisemajanduse_koguprodukt_%28SKP%29/02Pehilised_rahvamajanduse_arvepidamise_naitajad/&search=SISEMAJANDUSE+KOGUPRODUKT+JA+KOGURAHVATULU&lang=2. Дата обновления: 11.03.2013.

[15]Eurostat http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/tgm/table.do?tab=table&plugin=1&language=en&pcode=tec00115

[16] Statistical Yearbook of Lithuania, 2012 http://web.stat.gov.lt/uploads/metrastis/1_LSM_2012.pdf

[17] Зельценберг В. Легче застрелиться: страны Балтии подсчитывают убытки от девальвации рубля http://bb.lv/rinki-i-kompanii/item/9160776-legche-zastrelitsya-strany-baltii-podschityvayut-ubytki-ot-devalvatsii-rublya  22.12.2014

[18] По росту ВВП Эстония заметно отстает от остальных стран Балтии http://rup.ee/rus/novosti/ekonomika-i-biznes/po-rostu-vvp-estoniia-zametno-otstaet-ot-ostalnykh-stran-baltii 27.03.2015

[19] Как российский кризис скажется на экономиках стран Балтии http://rup.ee/rus/novosti/mirovaia-ekonomika/kak-rossiiskii-krizis-skazhetsia-na-ekonomikakh-stran-baltii 25.03.2015

[20] Доходы госбюджета Латвии в 2015 году составят 7,25 млрд. евро http://www.baltic-course.com/rus/finansi/?doc=99880 БК, Рига, 09.12.2014.

Although so far elections in Latvia were based exclusively on ethnic principle – Latvians voted for Latvian parties and Russians – for Russian, the Harmony Center does not consider itself an ethnic party. It offers its own political formula as it believes multilingualism and multiculturalism are Latvia’s advantages rather than drawbacks. It is difficult to advocate the formula in conditions of dominating national ideology and nationally-minded voters, however the number of supporters is on the rise.

At self-government election on June 1 the Harmony Center won a landslide victory in Riga – nearly two thirds of residents entrusted Ushakov and his team to govern the city for another four years. For the first time in Latvia’s modern history a political party won an absolute majority. It was also for the first time that the vote in the capital of Latvia was not based on the ethnic principle. At least a third of Harmony Center supporters are Latvians. It was a genuine victory which was preceded by strong campaigning. Now all of us and mostly Harmony Center leader Nils Ushakov have to prove that the choice was correct and make those who did not vote for us change their mind, said Urbanovičs. It is typical of Janis. Even such a major victory he perceives only as an opportunity to improve and grow.

History as weapon

Mr. Urbanovičs, you have been in politics for 20 years. How do you assess what has been done in the years?

On the official level the main achievements of Latvia is the joining of the EU and NATO or the return to the European family, so to say. But these are successes for the outside “market” while inside the country there is little to boast of because we failed to achieve the main thing – create the foundation for national development. No country like no building can be erected without a reliable foundation. The foundation comprises citizens of the country while we deliberately split society into citizens and non-citizens after regaining independence in 1991. Hundreds of thousands of people and there are 300 thousand non-citizens in Latvia were bluntly told: we reject you, you have no rights here, and in order to vote or become a lawyer you have to naturalize, i.e. take citizenship exams to confirm loyalty. It was an insult for people who were born in Latvia and lived here for many years. Legal deliberations saying the Latvian Republic and commonness of its citizens were restored in 1991 were no consolation to anyone.

Over 20 years have passed but the split is still there. We keep living in society which is split into citizens and non-citizens, Latvians and Russians. The split is the root of all problems. We do not have normal political competition as Latvian and Russian parties are competing instead of conservative, liberal, and social political forces. Most heated political debate focuses not on economic, but historic and national issues. We discuss where people were born, which language they speak, and on which side of World War Two front they fought.

Why are Latvian politicians so obsessed with history?

It is a paradox but many parties in Latvia build their political programs on the dream about the past. Unity, National Alliance, Union of Greens and Farmers are cultivating the dream of restoring the First Latvian Republic which existed in 1918-1940. But you cannot turn the time back. And there is no paradise which they promised after accession to the European Union. Moreover, the recent crisis considerably complicated the life of ordinary Latvians. According to official data, over 300 thousand people emigrated to earn their living abroad. It is an astronomical figure for Latvia. What do the ruling parties have to do in such a situation? It is politically risky to speak about the real situation and they switch to the past as history can offer various arguments if you look thoroughly .

But sober-minded people have to understand it is impossible to go back to the past no matter how wonderful it was . . .

Yes, it is true for sober-minded politicians. But one of the main problems is biased and provincial mentality. It helps plough the historic and national field. We are constantly trying to convince ourselves that we suffer because nobody understands how unique we are and that no common recipes for treating public and state diseases are good for us. It is gross provincialism! But it definitely helps maintain a conflicting atmosphere in society. For example, the Saeima has recently divided citizens of the country into “correct” and “incorrect”.

What is the “correctness” criteria?

It is the country where a Latvian resident wants to get a second citizenship. Earlier the possession of two passports was strictly banned and even punished by stripping the Latvian citizenship. Now the law is liberal but with a limit as dual citizenship is allowed only with members of the European Union, European Free Trade Association, NATO countries, as well as Australia, New Zealand, Brazil and countries with which Latvia concluded agreements on dual citizenship. The Russian Federation and other CIS member-countries, as well as Israel are not on the list.

The Harmony Center believes the approach is discriminatory. It turns out that a citizen of Latvia residing in the United States or Brazil enjoys more rights than Latvian citizens living in Russia or Israel. The amendments to the law do not allow thousands of Latvian citizens and their descendants to maintain ties with the native land. They are actually pushed out of the country for good. We requested Latvian President Andris Bērziņš not to sign the amendments into law, but he did not adhere to our call.

Trapped by myths

Harmony Center is the winner of the latest parliamentary election and the biggest faction in Saeima. But it is still in opposition. One of the conditions advanced to Harmony Center for joining the ruling coalition is the recognition of Soviet occupation. Isn’t it strange?

It is strange, of course! Latvia calls itself a democratic country but has only one official interpretation of history. It is banned not only to deny but also doubt it. The answer to the question “Do you recognize occupation?” is a kind of a password in Latvia. If you agree with what the asking person means by occupation then you get a foot in the door. If you reject occupation or at least doubt it (because you know more about the period than the asking person) you immediately become an alien and further communication with you is impossible. . .

It is a genuine totalitarian approach when they proclaim the only truth which needs no proof. Truth cannot be afraid of facts and evidence because it is truth that always passes the test for truthfulness.

The Harmony Center was offended by the demand to recognize occupation as a precondition for joining the government. Why should a politician elected by a big number of Russian voters in Latvia take a history exam with another politician elected by Latvian voters? Voters of the Harmony Center are no worse than voters of currently ruling national parties of Latvia! Deputies from Harmony Center are not going to take exams. We have to report only to our voters.

The problem in Latvia is that nobody is ready to seriously discuss recent history and 1940 developments. The country is trapped by myths which are reproduced e very year.

What is your opinion? What happened in Latvia in 1940 — occupation, annexation or incorporation?

For me the issue of incorporation, annexation or occupation is secondary. It is a dispute over definitions rooted exclusively in history mythologize. International law does not use “occupation” definition regarding Latvia. It is used only by Latvian experts to preserve and expand the myth they created.

You suggested to impose a moratorium on discussion of historic issues.

The Harmony Center is ready to discuss historic issues at any level but the problem is that no discussion is possible. Politicians who rule Latvia for the past twenty years are used to the language of ultimatums rather than dialogue. If the ruling parties are not ready to change the record it might be better to put it aside. Let us first provide decent pensions to the elderly and allowances to children and give medicines to hospitals and patients and jobs to able-bodied people. Then we can argue about half a century old developments.

They will object by saying it is possible to build up the present only on correct historic foundation…

The foundation is necessary but, unfortunately, in Latvia reference to history does not mean the construction of a correct foundation for the country. By constantly raising the occupation theme the Latvian political elite gives a signal that there are aliens, good and bad guys. Occupation thus stops to be historic fact as it is raised to the level of religion.

I am very much concerned by the ongoing calls to revise World War Two results and hold the second Nuremberg trial this time of Communism and that Russia has to compensate Latvia for “occupation” damage. They even created a special commission to calculate the damage and it regularly meets to count something. A Latvian Internet site offered to vote for pulling down the monument to Liberators in Riga close to which hundreds of thousands of residents mark the Victory Day every year.

This year on the eve of May 9 the ruling coalition decided to make a special “present” to Latvian war veterans – it banned the use at festive events of Nazi and Soviet symbols. It was the initiative of Unity, National Alliance, and Reform Party to equate swastika with the red flag, star, hammer and sickle. There is the second meaning behind it – to equate Nazi Germany and the USSR. This year the ban was not approved but the ruling parties will definitely push it through by next Ma y 9.

It is all very frustrating and serious when they judge the past and plan to demolish monuments. It is no fight with the past but shooting at future. Neo-Nazism is raising head in Europe and the revision of World War Two results is becoming a modern political trend.

I believe Europe and Russia need a new peace conference similar to the one held in Helsinki to discuss a lot of accumulated vital issues. Russian President Vladimir Putin and European Parliament President Martin Schultz can initiate it as both men have Passionist mentality and figuratively speaking can build an amber bridge between Russia and Europe. Latvia would only benefit from Its construction.

Accounting harms

They call the performance of current Prime Minister Valdis Dombrovskis a success story as budget deficit was reduced to the necessary level and the country is ready to introduce euro. How do you assess his work?

First of all I would dare say that I am convinced the country should better have a budget deficit than a deficit of the population. Three hundred thousand Latvians who left the country are the true assessment of the performance of Dombrovskis’ government rather than polite words he hears from Brussels offices. I am sure the government has to report not only to the International Monetary Fund but to all residents of the country. You will agree that not all residents of Latvia are planning to emigrate to London or Dubai. The government has mostly to think about them and their interests rather than about praise from the IMF .

Does the prime minister think about Latvians?

Domsbrovskis is a very good accountant who skillfully deals with figures. However accounting is no economy. Economy means development. The Harmony Center calls to stop constantly cutting all budget expenditure but to develop the country instead. The prime minister has recently said the Harmony Center headed by Riga Mayor Nils Ushakov is dragging Riga into a financial abyss. In reality it is vice versa. The Harmony Center controls the economic and social situation in the Latvian capital and prevents Riga and the whole of Latvia from falling into a pit. Riga today is the float of future development in the country. The new victory of Nils Ushakov at elections in Riga I shows city residents are well aware of that. Gradual development of the capital city in the past four years gave a guarantee that not everything in Latvia is consolidated, stolen and reduced.

Positively thinking we should admit that current economic crisis helped Latvia get rid of a very bad illusion and belief that someone would come to rescue it. Neither the EU nor the United States will come. Egoists work in every country and we also have to learn to be egoists. We have to argue rather than obediently fulfill instructions from above. We have to think how we should develop ourselves in order to secure Latvian prosperity.

Russian syndrome

Common sense prompts that Latvia should develop good economic relations not only with EU countries but also with Russia and CIS members. Nobody denies it at the official level but western vector clearly dominates real politics. What do you believe is the reason?

Let’s look at the map for the beginning. It is clear that Russia and CIS countries are our closest neighbors. They know Latvia and Latvian products well. Mounted activities on the avenue would give an impulse to economic development and create new jobs. But the problem is that the political elite constantly adds not a spoon but a whole bucket of tar into relations with Russia. Now we honor SS legion and then we speak about the danger of not only Russian investments but also of cultural organizations of compatriots as they comprise the “soft power” of Russia.

Now and then the issue of closing all Russian kindergartens is raised and calls are voiced to switch education in budget-financed schools only to Latvian language. In a word, the emotional background of Russian-Latvian relationship leaves much to be desired. It is a shame that Latvia turned its back on Russia for many years while neighboring countries – Lithuania, Estonia, Finland, and Poland successfully competed for Russian investments. We should have long admitted to ourselves that we want to operate on the eastern market. We have one major advantage for accessing Russian and CIS markets against Lithuanians, Estonians, Poles, Germans, Chinese – we have a much higher share of Russian-speaking population. But there is an obligatory condition: all people in Latvia – Latvians, Russians, Belarussians, Ukrainians, Jews, Poles and all other nationalities should agree a formula of joint existence and begin constructing a big common home. I always say the Latvian book of happiness can begin only with the following phrase: “and finally they agreed.” Only after that we shall be able to join global competition.

As long as Latvian leaders fight for the ballots of Latvian voters without paying attention to Russians and even declaring them enemies and as long as Russian politicians struggle for Russian voters there will be no breakthrough in the country. Remember the words of Professor Preobrazhensky in Mikhail Bulgakov’s Heart of a Dog: “Havoc is in heads”. I would add in the heads of politicians. Believe me, when the havoc is over the country will immediately improve.

Smile!

Dou you believe interethnic relations in Latvia are improving or deteriorating?

For the given moment they are mostly mothballed. Each community leads its own life. The Latvians keep repeating the mantra about occupation and hard destiny of the Latvian people, the Russians complain of being blamed for all historic deeds of the USSR and treated as second-tier people.

It is most dramatic that both are right in their own way as everyone believes only his own truth and does not even want to hear another truth. Any withdrawal from habitual and convenient perceptions and notions painfully hits at self-conscience. We like to live in the closed zone of personal psychological and political comfort and ignore everything happening around in the country and the world. It is the diagnosis of our disease and the first remedy is the understanding that we are ill. But we are stubborn patients and shall never agree that we are ill. It is a hard job for us to try and understand a neighbor of different nationality. We are all very lazy. Therefore, the ideas of reconciliation, harmony, forgiveness are unpopular. It is more important for us to hit the opponent as hard as possible.

At the same time huge money is spent to integrate society, but nothing is changing.

Integration is joint work. But we turned it into a process of converting unfaithful to genuine faith. Figuratively speaking, Latvian politicians are telling Russians in Latvia: “Dear Russians, you were unlucky to be born in wrong families but we shall correct it. We shall help you become Latvians!” The Saeima has recently adopted amendments to the citizenship law which list only Latvians and Livs as Latvian nation leaving all other nationalities aside.

But Russians in Latvia do not want to become Latvians. They want to remain Russians, speak Russian, read Russian newspapers, watch Russian TV, and they want their children study in Russian. The Russians also want to be treated as full-fledged citizens rather than schoolchildren who have to be taught how to grow up as genuine citizens. Instructions from above will not create a common life formula in Latvia. We already had such an experience not long ago.

During heated debate we often forget the main thing – you should not wish other people what you do not wish yourself. We forget that pronounced words often materialize: if you call someone a friend he will become a friend, if you call him enemy he will be an enemy . . .

There is an old animated cartoon about a small raccoon who was afraid of a big beast that lived in a pond. The raccoon made horrifying faces but the beast in the pond also grinned. And then the raccoon was advised to smile to the monster and the beast smiled in response… It is a cartoon for kids but with great philosophy – anger and negative emotions do not resolve but complicate problems which can be settled only through a positive approach. For genuine politicians it should be a commonplace truth in their profession.

Ina Оshkaya,

for Amber Bridge

When will Russia deploy its troops on the border with Baltic countries?

There is no necessity in it as we regard a military conflict with NATO as extremely unlikely in at least 15- 20 years. Today there is a different configuration of threats. They mostly come from the south. It is because the United States and NATO failed to accomplish the tasks which they set before the invasion in Afghanistan. Modern security forces of Afghanistan are incapable. The government is actually controlling only Kabul. Various warlords charge NATO forces for save passage of convoys. This extortion developed into a business – we shall shoot if you do not pay.

Today the presence of NATO in Afghanistan is beneficial for all, including Russia, because the threat does not expand beyond its borders. We believe that after the Americans and NATO forces withdraw the government of Hamid Karzai will be toppled and the Taliban will again seize Kabul. A question will arise where they will advance from there? We forecast that Islamic extremism will expand to former Soviet republics in Central Asia. That will trigger large-scale destabilization in a number of countries. Without counteraction the threat may become real also for Russia. Therefore, the Central military district is being strengthened as it is in charge of repelling threats from Afghanistan.

Still many Baltic politicians claim that Russia poses a major threat to them. Is it smoke without fire?

The image of an outside enemy consolidates a nation and makes it easier for politicians to brainwash the public. It is prestigious to engage in politics: there is good money, a possibility to travel the world at state expense, appear on TV, and when possible dive hand into state coffers. Therefore politicians want to engage in politics all their life. The image of an outside enemy helps manipulate the moods of the voters and achieve the desired result in elections.

However the Latvian defense minister several times expressed concern over Russian-Belarussian military exercises close to our borders. Do you mean there was no reason for it?

There is the Latvian embassy and military attache who has to inform his defense ministry about the aims and tasks of the Russian military planning. If the minister is concerned it means the work of the Latvian military attache in Russia is bad. It means he cannot communicate proper information that will dispel the concern of the minister. On the other hand, I understand that it is important for the defense minister to always express concern about threats in order to secure an acceptable budget in Latvian conditions. Another explanation is a recurrence of past mentality and the absence of a broad perception of the world. We describe claims that Latvia can become a victim of aggression from Russia as political paranoia.

But many Latvian residents are still scared by their history… How do you believe it is possible to agree dividends from an enemy image with mutually beneficial and good-neighborly relations?

As for history, I can also say that we can advance claims to Latvia for activities of Latvian secret police. As you know, the organization created by Felix Dzerzhinsky had a disproportionately high share of senior Latvian officials who also participated in mass non-judicial executions of Russian officers on the territory of Soviet Russia. Should we issue a historic invoice for Latvia to pay? Russia does not do that because it is absolutely counterproductive. Who will benefit from it? It will only cause anger and deterioration of relations.

We describe claims that Latvia can become a victim of aggression from Russia as political paranoia.

I cited the example to show that it is possible to get any skeleton from the closet if necessary. We are interested in good relationship with Latvia. Our foreign policy aims at resolving security problems not through an arms race, but by political agreements which guarantee us from military force majeure on the western avenue.

The main thing which I want to say is that it is necessary to get rid of the occupation in the minds. The heads of many politicians are occupied by the Russian military threat. Honestly speaking, we laugh at the paranoid fears. We do not understand the logic. If you analyze the composition of the military grouping in the west of Russia you will see that it is purely defensive. It is not an invasion army. Secondly, I believe we have to help politicians establish contacts with non-governmental experts. Together with my colleagues I am planning to set up a non-governmental structure shortly – the institute of national security problems which will analyze military-political activities in all regions of the world. We are open for contacts with Latvian experts to jointly assess the threats. We call on politicians to change something in our existing bilateral relationship. I repeat – Russia is very interested in good-neighborly relations and Latvia can enjoy major economic benefits from partnership with Russia. Favorable political conditions shall be created for that.

The technical might of the armed forces has increased. But did the strength of guarantees against the might increase the same way? The question is actually about the possibility of a nuclear war.

I believe the threat of a nuclear war is minimal today because the nuclear powers are aware of. . .

Are they?

Definitely, they are. I can say that legal (I am not speaking about India, Pakistan, Israel) members of the nuclear club – Russia, France, the UK, China, and the United States – are very responsible in planning the use of nuclear weapons. The fear of guaranteed mutual extermination in case of an exchange of massive nuclear strikes makes their use in modern warfare practically impossible. Today nuclear weapons are a political weapon, a peacekeeper. Nuclear weapons are a political surety and a non-aggression guarantee. But I have to recall that Russian military doctrine says: if Russia becomes a victim of large-scale aggression with the use of conventional armed forces which threaten the very existence of Russia as a state it will have the right to a preventive nuclear strike against the aggressor. Thus, we are sending a message: if you launch a conventional war against us we can retaliate in a different way.

But you recently wrote yourself that existing and potential military threats will considerably increase by 2030.

They will increase mostly because of global uncertainty.

How would you rate modern threats in general? By the level of danger.

I believe Islamic terrorism is the main threat for Russia. Another equal threat is internal instability mostly in North Caucasus. The problem there is not military, there is a self-reproducing terrorist environment which is dangerous.

It is necessary to get rid of the occupation in the minds. The heads of many politicians are occupied by the Russian military threat.

Then there is uncontrolled proliferation of mass destruction weapons and missile technologies. In the third place there is considerable supremacy of NATO military capabilities over us. The fourth potential threat is China from the point of view of military planning which it can carry out in future, not now. Today China’s interests are in Southeast Asia. There is also uncertain situation in a number of regions in the world. Small conflicts can provoke a big war. Cyber wars are another threat. There are examples of cyber threats related to an impact of one country on another. The United States and Israel launched a virus which switched Iranian centrifuges into an off-design regime and they actually broke down. The same weapon can be used against a nuclear power plant and trigger a large-scale environmental catastrophe. Consultations are necessary among civilized countries to drop the threat.

I nevertheless believe that as long as there are states wars will remain a means to resolve irreconcilable contradictions between the states. There are new wars in store, wars for resources and new colonial wars. Actually France launched a military operation in Mali to secure free access to African uranium on which French nuclear power-engineering relies. It is an example of a new colonial war. I believe it will become a reality more and more as all economies need resources today. Look how China actively enters Africa and Southeast Asia. It goes where it is allowed to come and the Americans naturally do not like it.

We have also to bear in mind that an army can win a war against a regular army of another country, but it cannot act as regulator of policing and anti-insurgency functions. The Americans routed the government forces of Saddam Hussein and won a military victory in Iraq. But they failed to regulate the situation in Iraq. It is still a pot of various terrorist groups. In this respect nonmilitary conflict settlement forms are becoming important.

What does the notion of “international terrorism” mean?

It is a myth and a bluff used by the Americans to free their hands for military operations. In reality the United States failed to achieve a single aim either in Afghanistan or in Lebanon or with Al-Qaeda.

What is the European Union in military context?

Nothing, except for declarations. No viable armed forces have been created in the European Union. The economic situation in the EU does not promote them. Europe prefers to fight somewhere if the United States bears the main burden.

Why should Europe put the carriage before the horse? The main threats for the EU today are economy and migration control. Look what is happening. Shariah patrols are in the streets of London. Mujahedin in Switzerland call from minarets. In certain conditions that can result in internal destabilization and unrest like in Paris. The accumulation of a critical mass which does not accept European values but has a residence permit is very dangerous. Terrorist cells can emerge. It is clear that wars are impossible between European countries. On the contrary, there is integration. Balkan wars were US aggression against sovereign Yugoslavia which ended in its disintegration. At present the threat of a conflict in Europe is next to nothing. Therefore, geopolitics move to the front stage.

Who are Russian allies today?

As Alexander III said, Russian strategic allies are its army and navy. There is a coalition of interests but it is still inefficient. In the military sphere the closest relations are maintained with Belarus. But I repeat that Belarussian army will not fight for the Russian army. We can support each other but the Russian army can rely only on itself. There is nothing like the Warsaw Treaty today. Russia is strategically alone. It has to repel existing threats by military but mostly political means. It is the task of the Russian diplomacy to decrease the risks of military conflicts. We cannot afford an arms race and we do not want confrontation as they all hit our economy. I repeat there is no Russian threat for Baltic countries. We are interested in good-neighborly and peaceful relations. We absolutely do not need any tension on our western borders.

What is the current breakdown in world arms trade?

The United States is in the lead and Russia is second. But our performance improves every year. Last year we sold arms worth 15 billion dollars although we lost some important markets.

Can the arms flows indicate where conflicts are coming?

No, they are not related. A growing number of countries want to have an army as a guarantee. The main arms race is developing today in Southeast Asia or broadly speaking in Asia and the Pacific Rim. China began to convert its economic might into military strength and project its force on oceanic theater of warfare. China said it will build aircraft- carrying fleet. It means it has an expansion plan. Other countries are concerned with it and begin to re-arm themselves, from Australia to Singapore. It is a very conflict-fraught region. Firstly, there are disputed islands and, secondly, there is shelf where hydrocarbon production is possible.

You were born in Riga. Is Latvia an alien country for you today?

Riga is my native place and Latvia is my motherland. As they joked in a TV show I am a third-generation occupant. My grandfather was an officer in the Baltic military district and graduated from the Alksnis military school. I am also an officer. It so happened that I wasn’t here for the last fifteen years. I came now and am very glad. There are good recollections and warm feelings. I love Latvia.

Viktor Avotins,

for Amber Bridge

As for the First World War, Russia has to restore memory about it. It was a deliberately forgotten war.
Ilmjarv. Naturally, it all has to be analyzed. But I doubt it would be of interest for current generations as it happened too long ago. The longer we live the close are the two wars to each other.
Estonia and Latvia were parts of the USSR for half a century. It is a long time for a human being. What imprint did it leave in the conscience of modern Estonians, Latvians and Russians in Latvia and Estonia? How much are they still Soviet? How does the Soviet epoch sprout in modern times?
Ilmjarv. When Baltic countries regained independence there were people who believed it was possible to return to 1939. They believed the Soviet period can be erased from memory and the lost paradise can be returned. Many nostalgic newspaper articles, movies and TV shows have until recently tried to describe the period between the wars as a time of general wellbeing with no problems. However a different reality appeared from under the nostalgic blanket. The problem was in limited historic landscape and non-critical reflection in self-conscience. It confirms the words by French historian Ernest Renan who said the wall of national identity is built, inter alia, with a good share of errors and dreams.
I have to say there were two Soviet Unions – one before 1956 and another one which was more vegetarian – after 1956. Estonian history science did not study the second one properly. The question about the perception of the Soviet Union by Russians in Estonia also demands major analysis. I believe they perceive it as their own country – “it was our state”. Naturally, Estonians are of a different opinion. But it is also impossible to claim that Estonians have absolutely no nostalgia about the Soviet Union. Sociological research is necessary. There is nostalgia about the time when everyone enjoyed free education and free medical aid…
Straube. It is difficult for me to say what various categories of Latvians think. In general there is a negative assessment of the Soviet times as they are associated with the loss of independence and other problems if we speak about political aspects of the past. It is different in private life. When people today encounter problems they can react were unexpectedly: it was better under the Soviet power. The spontaneous emotional reaction is often positive regarding the Soviet past.
It is clear for an historian that such perception of the past is natural for people in any time and in any society. People could react the same way when Latvia was within the Russian Empire or during a hundred years under the Swedish rule or under Polish authority or in the time of the Order and Bishop. It is all history and you cannot change the past. Its knowledge is valuable in itself because it allows to learn history lessons. History is full of mistakes, betrayal, and stupidity. My teacher Theodor Zeids said there is no logic in history, it is the most illogical science. But anyway for us to avoid stupid things today and tomorrow we have to learn the lessons of knowledge which history provides to us and thus comprehend opportunities for our development. There is always something good in all times, including the Soviet period. There are also positive examples of our coexistence with Baltic Germans: we learned a lot from them and they learned a lot from us. Years and centuries pass and negative perceptions disappear as people realize: yes, it was this way. School textbooks and scientific literature begin to provide more objective assessments. Time will come for a calm assessment of the Soviet period…
Soviet traits do exist in people. They lived with them, continue to live and will die with them.
Are there many Soviet-minded people among the Latvians who support nationalistic positions? By Soviet I mean simplified perception of the world.
Straube. Primitive perception of the world is characteristic also of the people in liberal-democratic societies, not only the Soviet Union. I believe it is less in societies with a long democratic history. The more they have democracy and the more they are used to resolving social problems themselves the less standard is the conscience of the people. There are numerous stereotypes about socialist society. If we look at northern countries which have much more socialism than in the Soviet Union the idea may not look that bad.
Do you agree that history teaches?
Ilmjarv. If we take Germany or Japan, for example, they have likely learned something. Finland is also an example. But we can hardly say each people learn the lessons of history. However when we pronounce the names of countries we do not distinguish between the state and the people.
Many modern Germans are ill at ease, to put it mildly, when they are blamed for the developments that took place seventy years go. The more time passes the more absurd it will be to remind modern people about the deeds of their predecessors. It turns out the loser is to blame. Only those who suffered a major defeat have to feel historic guilt. And the skeletons of the winners remain in closet and sleep well.
Ilmjarv. If we study the history of war losers we shall immediately discover it is a very delicate topic. In response you often hear arguments that you should not harrow feelings and pick in acute and dramatic moments of history. Nobody likes to be weak. History dislikes losers. It is written by winners.
Today it is yet impossible to write the history of the Baltic peoples so that it is equally acceptable for all. The history of any people and country has developments and periods which are viewed in a very contradicting manner.
How do you see the future of your country as a citizen and historian who went beyond its geographic and mental boundaries in his works? What would you predict to your country?
Straube. One can seriously speak about future only when present-day problems are overcome. One of them which we do not always perceive is a legacy of the Soviet epoch. At that time they often spoke about “the big brother” in Moscow who taught us how to live. We continue to live with the syndrome. It always seems to us that we do not know how to do something and that someone other knows and can do better. I clearly see it in my professional sphere – in science and education. It always seems to us that we are not that clever as our “big brothers” – now in the European Union. When travelling from one European country to another I do not see anything outstanding. The problems are the same everywhere. Both positive and negative experience exists everywhere. We should stop crying the blues and idealizing others. When we overcome it and convince ourselves that we are capable of resolving problems independently then there will be sense to look into the future.
If we overcome depressive self-conscience there will be hope that society will become better conscientious and honest and the law will become equal for everyone. There have always been dishonest people. If society is democratic and active in the fight against negative things the existing share of dishonest people who do not respect law will decrease. It would be easier for everyone to live in such predictable society.
We have also to understand that Latvia cannot limit itself to a transit bridge and has to produce something. It is ridiculous to hear constant deliberations about the necessity to build enterprises. Each time every option is opposed by irreconcilable greens. Next day they demand higher wages and pensions from the government. But that is impossible. If we want to live better we have to work hard and produce something rather than look at western commodities unloaded in Riga port and sent further east or vise versa. Or from north to south and back.
We have to reorient our patriotism towards rational and pragmatic course. Today it is sometimes destructive for the state itself. Time ago we were proud that the USSR collapsed and nobody was polluting our nature and rivers any longer and that there were no chemicals in agriculture. However modern realities do not make us happy about green grass and pure air. We have to think how to build up Latvia. Poor Latvians whether Latvian, Russian, Estonian or Jewish will not survive without industry.
Ilmjarv. I once heard interesting stories at a conference in Kharkov. They said it was good in Estonia and bad in Ukraine. I spontaneously responded: you number 47 million in Ukraine and we number one million and three hundred thousand in Estonia. Close to a million are Estonians. It is our main problem from the future point of view. There are no borders. Nobody in the EU knows how to cope with existing unemployment. Small Estonia is a tiny piece of the global world. If I were a politician I would definitely say how to resolve the problem. But I am historian and will not interfere in politics.

Archbishop emeritus of Riga Cardinal Janis Pujats is one of the most respected people in Latvia. He is a top hierarch who publicly comments on acute problems and actively participates in public life, voting at referenda and addressing rallies. The voice of this wise man calling for good and justice is heard in the whole country.

Janis Pujats is a genuine patriarch of the Church. He was ordained a priest 62 years ago in 1951. During that time seven pontiffs ruled Vatican. The Latvian cardinal participated in the 2005 conclave which elected Benedict XVI to head the Roman-Catholic Church. The event was extremely important for his personal and spiritual lifes which have long been inseparable for him.

Janis Pujats watched the papal election in 2013 from the sidelines as cardinals over the age of 80 do not participate in the conclave and he was 83 at the time. The cardinal does not conceal that he was very agitated as much depends on the #1 man in general and the Church is no exception.

The Latvian cardinal does not personally know the new pontiff, but what he heard from his colleagues gives hope: with God’s help the Roman-Catholic Church will get a second breath under Pope Francis and will strengthen its positions in modern world on the basis of steadfast Christian values.

White smoke of hope

Three years ago on the eve of his 80th birthday Janis Pujats resigned as the archbishop of Riga. He now serves in the Virgin of Anguish Church in the very heart of the Old Town. He lives on the third floor of a small house in the yard of the church to where a steep staircase leads.

… His Eminence opened the door to me himself. He wore the red cap of a cardinal. It was a modest residence with two small rooms and a kitchen which also served as an entrance hall. There was nothing extra, to say the least.

There is a computer on your desk. Did you work?

There are no typewriters any longer. Computer makes it easier to write sermons. I am always short of time. I have to prepare for the other world. Not much time remains. . . And there are still a lot of books to read and no memoirs have been written. I have to put affairs in order so that they cause no trouble to anyone after my death. I have also to see to it that everything valuable is preserved and everything invaluable is disposed of.

You are likely to have attentively followed the election of the new head of the Roman-Catholic Church and recalled how you elected his predecessor. How does it happen?

Cardinals take oath not to divulge what is happening and what is being said behind closed doors of the Sistine Chapel where they gather with the corresponding prayer Pro Elegendo Romano Pontifice. In 2005 115 cardinals spent two days in the chapel and I am well aware what high responsibility it is to make a committed choice and properly understand the highest will. There is so much on the scale. . .

Natives from Baltic countries have headed Vatican of late and it was even called an amber bridge of religions… Did it help attract attention to the region?

The cardinals voted for Francis because they hoped he would preserve traditional values of the Bible and Christian creed.

It was a major honor and blessing for us. Baltic countries are too small to be honored by a papal visit. There are very many people in the world who wait for him to come, and in 1993 Pope John Paul II did visit us. He restored in Latvia the cult of St.Meinhard who was the first Bishop of Livonia. He revived Aglona Basilica which is a lively place for pilgrims today.

How do you assess the choice of your colleagues? Can we say that under the new Pope the bridge between countries and peoples has become longer and wider as it spanned across the ocean?

The cardinals voted for Francis because they hoped he would preserve traditional values of the Bible and Christian creed. His candidacy was in itself a worthy response to the challenges of the time. There are many believers in Latin America and they definitely have long deserved a representatives at the highest level. The hearts of the people were excited when he paid his attention to poor people. The election of Francis was welcomed by the Muslim world which cannot be ignored today.

There has been much talk of late about a conflict of civilizations. The number of Muslims in Europe is on the rise and new mosques are being built…

If Muslims want to build mosques in Europe why shouldn’t we build a Christian church in Saudi Arabia? But we can’t! They do not even allow Christians to pray at home. It is unfair. Do you want us to respect you? Then we have to see reciprocity. There can be only one solution – peaceful coexistence and no aggression. There are all grounds to believe that Francis will succeed in promoting dialogue and mutual understanding not only between all Christian confessions but also with the Islamic world.

There are three Christian religions in the Baltic Sea region. How do you see their dialogue and interaction?

The dialogue between Christian confessions is one of the best in Latvia. We have a good post-war cooperation experience and it successfully develops. We pray together on state holidays and jointly resolve many issues.

For example, had it not been for the resolute position of the Church Latvia would have adopted a law on same-sex marriages in 2007. It passed two readings in the Saeima. However the council for spiritual affairs at the prime minister which united heads of all Christian confessions succeeded to convince then Prime Minister Aigars Kalvitis that such a law was inadmissible and the issue was dropped.

Earthly existence is given to mortals to comprehend God and divine laws and try and abide by them already in this life.

Current Prime Minister Valdis Dombrovskis had not convened the spiritual council for long and says: let experts deal with it. And who are the experts? Non-believers or homosexuals? Only the people can be the expert and they are not inclined to have liberal reforms. The world is already excessively liberal. I am sure the new pontific of the Roman-Catholic Church shares this opinion.

Challenges temper will

Could you, a village herdboy, ever imagine that you would become a car dinal?

I have never thought about it. I grew up in a village. I did not have a free minute as I had to constantly work – tend cattle, make hay and chop firewood. The father had 25 hectares of land. There were no tractors in the ’30s, it was all horse-driven. But we thoroughly ploughed the earth each piece of it. I had to walk three kilometers one way to school every day. The distance to the church w as six kilometers.

How did you come to believe in God?

I grew up in a religious family. Since ancient times my native Latgalia was inhabited by religious people. Communion and confession were major events and people prepared to them for long. Since childhood I have been surrounded by picturesque nature – hills and two lakes which reflected sunrise and sunset like mirrors. It was very beautiful and confirmed the greatness of God.

Not everyone can see it…

No, I believe it is more difficult for those who were born in a misfortunate place, somewhere in marshlands.

In those pre-war years people lived according to the rhythm of nature – sowing, first sprouts, flourishing, harvesting. The countryside differs from cities where you work for eight hours and are free after that. Sometimes you have to toil from dawn to dawn. It was a wonderful world where labor created man. Running your own agricultural business means schools temper.

There is no easy life today as enterprises shut down and people are sacked. Most population earns a minimum wage which is hardly enough to pay housing bills. Do you believe people are too much complaining about hardships and pity themselves? You generation had the hell of a time…

A human perceives the world in a way he merits it. Each has his own cross in the earthly life. Challenges make people know their weaknesses and drawbacks. Difficulties help expose them and cure, they grind and polish character, forge stubbornness, temper morality and thus prepare us for other life so that we are worthy to be in heavens among angels. Otherwise we will be barred from there. . .

Your should perceive challenges as the will of the Providence. Earthly existence is given to mortals to comprehend God and divine laws and try and abide by them already in this life. Everything we do is not senseless. Each deed lives a trace in eternity. The good will be rewarded and evil will be punished. The value of each day is to improve oneself and master love to God. This is the essence of theology, to put it briefly .

Many people are looking for better life abroad in emigration. Do you think it is a drive for change, improvement or escape from difficulties?

It may be good to go and make some money to launch a business back home. However it is unfortunate that people rarely come back.

Europe is full of emigrants from Baltic countries and Poland. Many of them are like vagabonds. It is bad. Our country is agricultural. Land has to be ploughed by horses if you cannot afford machines. After the First World War people lived in dugouts but did not surrender. They worked hard and in 20 years the country got back to its feet. They have to do everything to make the people work at home, in the native land so that there is enough food for them and for export.

Spoof target

In Soviet times they told us to care first for the native land and people around. However capitalism has a different essence – to elbow your way through and push others aside…

The very aim imposed on modern society is misleading – to ensure wellbeing and freedom. It means to live and treasure egoism and work for your own pocket. It makes people grab everything with both hands and get the biggest and sweetest pieces for themselves.

Wellbeing and personal freedom without God are spoof targets which open the door to the negative. Love thy neighbor as thyself. There is no justice if someone earns 10 thousand a month and another one has no money to buy bread. Are such people happy? No. Their eyes dislike what they see and ears what they hear .

It is impossible to build up an earthly life without God. Violations of commandments is a human tragedy in the whole world. There were seven capital sins and now we can count ten. Five are spiritual – pride, covetousness, anger, envy, and gambling, and five are corporal – lust, gluttony, alcoholism, drug addiction, and boozing.

Fifty years ago homosexuality was not considered a norm, at least officially. It was then legalized in America and spread to the Old World in Europe. It is a very alarming symptom! Society is doomed if it lives against natural laws.

There is a strata of vicious people in the West, I cannot call them differently, who enjoy homosexuality. They want to rise to power and often succeed. Constitutions of Germany, France, Spain, Scandinavian countries allow same-sex marriages which undermine the family. They pressure us! The law makes opponents of the unnatural conduct keep mum. You cannot even tell jokes about homosexuals as they are considered an insult. . .

You will be fined and jailed for that…. It is dictatorship for the sake of freedom!

In 20 post-Soviet years they advocated sex in this country and it undermined morality. Yet in early ’90s believers wrote to me: cinema halls are full of young people and show indecencies. Pornography is everywhere – in Internet and mobile phones. Sex has always been of major interest for the young and now they see that it is promoted at the top official level. Dirt flooded schools. Teachers do not want to speak about it, but they send advocates of same-sex love to teach indecencies to teenagers. Bad is the best. . .

Young people do not want to get married and make children. First they want to make money…

If a baby has been conceived he has the right to live. Only God can decided his fate. You have not only to rely on yourself but also believe in supreme forces. If God gives children he will also give food. Today people divorce two or even three times, according to statistics. It is a deadend for humanity or a path of Satan, to be more exact.

What do you think about apocalypse advertising campaign in the media? Some even interpreted the resignation of Pope Benedict XVI as a sign…

None of the mortals can know when apocalypse will come. Only God knows. But you can croak punishment from God. When humanity became so vicious that it was impossible to save it Deluge happened. Sodom and Gomorrah were destroyed when less than ten righteous men remained. God will not tolerate current vice for long. The Holy Writ says everyone will be stamped on the right hand or forehead in the times of the Beast so that nobody could either sell or buy without the stamp. It is already happening.

Had it not been for the resolute position of the Church Latvia would have adopted a law on same-sex marriages in 2007.

What do you mean?

There is only one way to govern “free society” – total control. Technology i s developing and allows to control all people. Soon the people in charge of control will actually control slaves like in ancient times. Outside control shall be replaced by inside control – consciousness. A man on the righteous path does not need any control.

Path to temple

How did Catholic Church in Latvia survive the Soviet times? You said in an interview that ungodliness was theoretical in the Soviet Union. Authorities tried to have nothing in common with the Church but did not show immoral movies and the Communists had their own code of morality. Now it is the time of practical atheism without any theory. Its task is to ruin humans…

Yes, it is. Vicious people easily get dependant – on drugs, alcohol – and do not understand the commandments of God. Media and Internet are full of negative things and people are tempted by the negative.

In Soviet times officials in charge of religious affairs controlled that prayers say nothing against the Soviet power. If the condition was observed they did not interfere with us. They were engaged in their own propaganda and we were engaged in ours, so to say. However they tightened the screws every year. First children were banned to take communion. Then young people under 18 years were prohibited from singing in church choir or serving. Teachers and officials were ousted, but non-party members were left in peace. There were more discipline and morality at the time. People drank less alcohol and refrained from smoking in schools. We knew nothing about drugs.

Do many people go to church today?

If we count residents and churches in the city, there should be no free place there on Sundays. But that does not happen.

There are churches in the countryside, but people left villages for cities or abroad. In my native Pujati village only two out of 22 houses are inhabited. Fields are overgrown with grass. Earlier you could see three churches from the top of a hill. Now only one.

Sounds like a philosophical parable…

The number of people increased in cities but there is no church in Kengarags or Imanta which are major districts of the capital city. Urban residents differ from rural people and do not like to walk. So it is necessary to build churches close to them. Today they pray in four languages in Riga – Latvian, Russian, Lithuanian, and Polish. Had they prayed in one language the church would be full. However everyone wants to speak to God in his own language and we want to help people in that. You cannot be an urban priest if you do not speak three-four languages.

You speak them. However last year Cardinal Pujats voted in a referendum against making the Russian language the second official one in Latvia…

All languages are equal before God. However there should be one state language in Latvia – Latvian. All have to know it but each is free to speak his native language. In pre-war Latvia they taught in Russian in schools.

You have been for many years advocating the introduction of the Bible chairs in schools. However there is no progress so far…

That is because of politicians! They do not want to understand that it is easier to teach the Bible chairs in school than later fight crime, build prisons to keep criminals at government expense. Those who comply with the commandments of God do not need either police or prisons.

The education minister has to officially declare that science should not struggle against religion. The existence of God cannot be experimentally verified. He is in another world which a human being cannot penetrate. Even if the rulers do not believe they should not impede their people to believe and many problems would be resolved. Discipline will strengthen and people will live better .

If there is belief and high goal, there will be God and heaven. If people understand what is in store they will not only adhere to the natural laws of God but will also enjoy them. Believers achieve several goals at a time – they keep their earthly affairs in order and thus come closer to heavenly life.

Can I ask you to preach for our readers?

The main thing is to understand that we do not have too much time on Earth – 80 or maybe 90 years. Our life is a path to eternity and therefore earthly and spiritual values should go hand in hand. It is simply unreasonable to lose such God’s grace as heaven and prefer hell because of sins!

To make us comprehend the truth God came down to Earth and allowed to be crucified to make us understand how important it is. But words are insufficient to us, we demand evidence!

Only the Christian religion has a commandment calling to Love Your Enemies. When you love them they are no longer enemies. There is only one enemy – the evil spirit who is to be hated.

There is a parable: both in heaven and in hell the tables are laid alike. But in heaven everyone is fed and happy, but in hell all are angry and exhausted. Why? Because heaven is ruled by the law of God and everybody loves everyone and offers the best piece to the other. In hell anger rages and everybody groaks. Is the morality clear? You have to live by the laws of love.

Thanks you for the interview, Your Eminence!

When I bid good-bye to His Eminence and went into the church yard the Sun came out from gray clouds and illuminated the dull Baltic day…

Ksenia Zagorovskaya,

for Amber Bridge

The foundation of the cathedral was laid in 1211 and it is ten years younger than Riga. It is actually the second birthday of the city as due to the founder of the cathedral, German bishop Albert, it rapidly developed from a medieval settlement into a major Hansa city on the Baltic Sea. The current capital of Latvia is its successor.

Thanks to the Riga Duma headed by Mayor Nils Ushakovs the Dom Cathedral was saved from destruction at the very last moment. The current self-government of the Latvian capital city has finally done what its predecessors and the government ignored for decades. It began renovating the dilapidating architectural monument of global importance. The first stage will last two years and will be completed in 2014 when Riga becomes the cultural capital of Europe.

Various faces of cathedral

The Dom Cathedral is the heart and soul of ancient Riga that determines the atmosphere of Old Riga. In winter evenings its dark greatness dominates the square. In hot summer days it gives relieving shade for bright umbrellas of street cafes to hide under. In any time of the year screaming seagulls fly over its tower as is appropriate for any coastal city .

The cathedral acquired its current appearance in late XVIII century after a large-scale reconstruction. In over eight centuries the image of the main cathedral in Riga harmonically fit into various architectural styles. The construction of the Dom Cathedral began in the grandiose Roman style and generations of architects enriched it with elements of Gothic ascent, Baroque grotesque, and strictness of Classicism. Therefore the cathedral looks completely different from various sides.

A high brick wall surrounding the cathedral and monastery goes along the whole quarter. From time to time it disappears in houses built in various historic periods and then emerges again. For example, it happens so in Janiela Street better known as Flower Street where the famous Soviet 12-part movie Seventeen Moments of Spring was shot. The house of Mrs. Hudson from the famous Sherlock Holmes and Doctor Watson movie is glued to the old wall.

In one of the narrow deadends adjacent to the Dom Cathedral the brick surface of the wall has white plates. They are headstones. The first Livonian bishop Meinard and its last spiritual father Valter fon Pletenberg were buried in the Dom Cathedral. They stopped burying in the cathedral and around it in 1772 upon an order of Russian Empress Catherine the Second.

Where the light comes from…

The Dom Cathedral has always been a spiritual and education center. The Capitul – supreme Livonian spiritual leadership – assembled there to decide the life of the Baltic Sea region.

The Dom School was the oldest educational establishment in Livonia which trained future priests and all those wishing to enter universities. In the XVI century it became a higher school and was headed by Jacob Batus, a comrade-in-arms of Reformation father Martin Luther. Distinguished publicist Garlibs Merkels and philosopher Iogann Gerder lectured there. The monument to the latter stands in the namesake park at the main entrance to the cathedral. The freethinkers opposed serfdom and called for expanded rights of the Latvians who were oppressed by German barons. Their dreams came true, as we can see now. . .

Classes in the Dom School initially were in Latin and then in German language. From 1772 teaching was also in Russian language. Today the successor to the Dom School is called the First State High School which is considered to be the best secondary school in the country. Many distinguished people finished it, including two prime ministers of independent Latvia – Einars Repše and Ivars Godmanis.

The first Livonian library appeared under the spacious cupola of the Dom Cathedral. Manuscripts and books collected by monks were transferred to the first public library of Latvia which is currently subordinated to the Latvian University.

One of the oldest museums in Europe – of the History of Riga and Navigation – is also a part of the monastery complex. It emerged in 1773 on the basis of the private collection of Riga doctor Nikolas von Himzel. However many exhibits – coins, fishing tackle, and utensils – were discovered during excavations close to the cathedral.

Mysterious Albert

The foundation stone of the cathedral was laid on July 25, 1211 by Bishop Albert who arrived in Riga from Bremen to convert pagan Baltic tribes into Christianity. His vessels anchored in the mouth of the Ridzene River which flowed into the Daugava. In late XVII century it became shallow and later disappeared completely. Now the place between 13 January, Alksnaja and Vetspilsetas Streets is called Albert Square. In early ’60s of the past century archaeological excavations there produced remains of two ships resembling Viking vessels. Scholars believe they belonged to the flotilla of the bishop.

History says nothing how the father of Riga looked like. No portrait has preserved. There is only a vague image on old detrited coins. The Bank of Latvia issued their new copies on the eve of the 810th anniversary of Riga. However no matter how hard you try you cannot see his face features but only that he was of robust built.

The monument to Albert in the yard of the cathedral does not pretend either to be the same as the original. Descendants of Baltic Germans living in Germany have recently restored it at their own expense. The genuine monument vanished during evacuation in the First World War. Historians still disagree in assessing the activities of the bishop. On the one hand, he gave a green light to the Baltic conquests by Crusaders, historian Leonid Fedoseev wrote. Albert fon Buksgevden was not only a Christian enlightener, but mostly a knight of the Order of the Brothers of the Sword who conquered local tribes with fire and sword and subordinated them to Livonian authorities.

But on the other hand, we can say that Albert developed Latvians. . . into Latvians as current Latvia is a part of the Baltic territory which the Crusaders did not allow growing Lithuania to swallow. Had it not been for the courageous bishop modern Latvia would have been a suburb of Lithuania. Who knows? It is only clear that Albert considerably changed the fate of Riga.

Divine sounds

The refined and famous pipe organ is 600 years older than the cathedral. It was built in 1883 by German company E.F.Walcker&Co and is considered to be the most valuable in the world. Ferenc Liszt called Praising God the music he devoted to the first performance of the Dom pipe. Artist and philosopher Nicholas Roerich also admired it.

Jevgenija Lisicina has been playting the Dom pipe organ for over half a century. She moved from Leningrad to Riga for the purpose and is happy .

— There is nothing better than the Dom pipe in the world, she said.

Together with Jevgenija we go up the narrow stairs to the choir and the organ. The stone arch is just above the head. It echoes every word. The famous acoustic of the Dom Cathedral is another miracle.

Jevgenija changes shoes (as pipe playing requires leather shoes with a slippery sole and a wide heel), puts her hands on the keys and. . . the cathedral is full of magic sounds of Bach – either waves flow the coast or wind sounds in the skies. You feel good. It is calm and easy to think.

— I swim in the music and every time die of excitement, said Jevgenija when the last sound died out in the spacious hall. Jevgenija Lisicina is a bright represnetative of the Dom pipe school which emerged yet in the ’60s of the last century when the cathedral acquired the status of a concert hall.

Like Pēteris Sīpolnieks, Oļģerts Cintiņš, Larisa Bulava, Aivars Kalejs, and others she is a disciple of Nikolajs Vanadziņš, the patriarch of Latvian organ music. A graduate of Petersburg Conservatoire he educated a constellation of outstanding musicians. One of them – Tālivaldis Deksnis – teaches pipe organ in the Latvian Musical Academy. There is always a tough competition for the profession and the new constellation of young organ players – Edīta Alpa, Iveta Apkalna, Ilze Reine, Vita Kalnciema, Robert Hanson, Jānis Peļše, and Atis Stepiņš – have already asserted themselves.

From 1988 the Dom Cathedral annually hosts an international festival of pipe organ music in mid-summer. The daily 20-minute Piccolo Concert at midday enjoys incredible popularity among tourists. A total of 270 concerts are annually performed in the Dom Cathedral and its long-standing concert administrator Silvija Zaķeproudly said that no other concert hall can boast such popularity of the audience.

Burden of years

Natural calamities did not spare the cathedral. Lightnings numerously hit its high spire. There were fires caused by negligent people. According to the minutes of a court session, in 1696 “on Saturday before the first pre-Christmas Sunday organ master Brandisiy was in a bad mood and threw aside a burning candle which fell into a pile of rubbish between benches”. A fire immediately broke out, but was extinguished with a big effort.

There were also floods as the flat bank of the Daugava River used to be much closer to the cathedral than today. In April 1709 water was so high that monks hauled two fish at the altar. The flood occurred again in 35 years and they began to build dikes on the bank. If earlier you had to go upstairs to the main side entrance, now you have to go down eleven stair-steps.

Main illness of cathedral is time…

The cathedral is a living creature, said scientists who monitor the health of the patient with the latest equipment. The big building erected on coastal quicksand constantly subsides resulting in a web of cracks on the walls. In 2005 the state of the architectural pearl was recognized as critical – the tower of the cathedral declined 34 centimeters from the vertical. Wisecrackers immediately called it Dom-Pisa cathedral while UNESCO included it into the list of a hundred endangered objects.

At that time the Dom Cathedral became the property of Evangelic-Lutheran Church of Latvia and the national parliament adopted a law on the preservation of the valuable architectural complex. However nothing changed after it. The cathedral which was last renovated in 1909, over a century ago, continued to dilapidate.

The catastrophe was prevented at the last moment. The Riga Duma listed the preservation of the sacred place as a priority and earmarked four million US dollars to it. Nearly the same amount was received from the European Regional Development Fund in the framework of cultural monuments preservation program.

—We adopted the right decision, said Riga Mayor Nils Ushakovs.- In a couple of years the cathedral would begin to collapse and we would have to pay much more for its restoration. The mayor was right as unpleasant surprises were exposed during the work. The southern wall has cracked and the eastern facade which looked in order also needed urgent reinforcement. The renovation of the most important city object is being done by the RE&RE construction company. Architects say the main task is to preserve and reinforce the “eggshell” – roof, walls, and windows.

Safety margin

… A construction lift takes guests up to the roof from where Old Riga and the mottle strip of the Daugava spread out before you and where the wind is so strong that it can carry you away. The Golden Cockerel, the old guard of Riga, is very close and you can see how big it is.

The roof was the first element for the builders to deal with and the autumn of 2011 was luckily warm and dry in Riga. The rotten century- old framework was replaced and the coves were covered with copper. Today the plates have darkened already and acquired the necessary noble tint while in summer the roof of the ancient cathedral was light-mindedly shining in the sun. Builders hope the safety margin will last for three hundred years.

The Unique Cross Gallery which runs 118 meters along the internal yard has been put in order. Today the pearl of the Gothic architecture is open for visitors who want to admire the gray olden time. The Capitul Hall – the oldest premises in the cathedral – has been restored. It is located in the semi basement and water has for centuries oozed by the walls saturating the bricks and leaving salt on the surface. The bricks which are contemporaries of Bishop Albert have been carefully cleaned. Concerts and wedding parties will be held under the stone arches where supreme spiritual leadership of Livonia used to gather long ago.

Stained-glass windows are multi-color bright now. They were made in Germany and reflect the history of Riga dated back to late XIX century. Earlier glass masterpieces have been completely lost in church pogroms in Reformation times. The stained-glass windows are illuminated in the evening on holidays and the old cathedral resembles a fairy tale castle.

When bells ring…

—The developments in the Dom Cathedral are not just renovation or repairs. They are careful and meticulous restoration of a unique monument in which our experts use all the latest achievements and also experience of predecessors. The smallest carelessness can result in a loss of cultural values, said Didzis Putniņš, Re&Re director general.

If the restoration of another museum – the Stock Exchange – was an international project, the Dom Cathedral is restored only by local experts – thirty best restorers of the country use mostly Latvian materials and pay special attention to their compatibility with ancient constructions. Thus, restored wooden elements are bonded by ancient drop-forged nails which is a three-century old technology.

Today the scaffolds have been removed from the Dom Cathedral. At first sight the symbol of Riga looks like it did before. The paradox is that it was exactly the task of the restorers. The better they do the job the less visible it is. (The only difference is that the cathedral will offer access to handicapped people as it got wheelchair ramps). The work of Latvian masters was highly praised by the head of the World Lutheran Federation Martin Junge who last year visited Riga to see how the Dom Cathedral is transforming.

Head of the Latvian Evangelical-Lutheran Church Archbishop Jānis Vanags dreams of the time when bells will ring in the cathedral’s tower. The bells have been restored and are kept in the yard of the cathedral. Before mounting the tower has to be reinforced with metal constructions to sustain the weight of the bells.

Ancient Riga legend says that once in a hundred years the spirit of water comes out from the Daugava to ask city residents: “Has the construction of Riga been completed?” If somebody responds “Completed” the spirit will immediately grab him under the water. But Riga is permanently built and the evil spirit has to go back every time with nothing. The legend is also true for the Dom Cathedral. Its restoration will cost an estimated 76 million dollars and last ten years. Riga Duma leaders promised to continue investing in the salvation of the cathedral. – It is our duty to preserve the sacred building for next generations, said Riga Vice Mayor Andris Ameriks. While the Rigas Doms is safe and sound everything will be good in its city today and in hundred years. . .

Christina Liepinja,

for Amber Bridge

Today they differ in assessing the events of the ’90s and the future of Latvia. Some see Latvia as equal among equals while others describe it as rightless colony of predatory West.

Dreams: test of time

In the ’90s of the past century the people desired freedom and united in the drive to new life. Dreams about future independent country were exciting. Did they come true?

Ivars Godmanis: They did come true to a major extent. The main thing is that Latvia became independent. We built up a democratic system in the country during the years which ensures human rights and freedoms in all spheres.

Talavs Jundzis: Today Latvia realizes what freedom and independence mean. We feel it every day and every minute. I will cite only two examples although there are much more than that: firstly, it is difficult to overestimate the meaning of the word of freedom when you can freely express your opinion about any leader of the country, including the president. It was impossible to do it before. Secondly, it is the freedom of travel. I enjoy travelling and it is important for me.

Janis Kucinskis: Some opportunities increased. You can freely buy books in the English language, clothes, household appliances, and a second-hand car if you have the money. But is it the main achievement? We surrendered to the West and exchanged Russia for glass beads like Indians did time ago in America.

The country was included into a new alliance and has not been independent for one day. Latvia was conquered without a single shot and became a colony of the West. Banks, supermarkets, petrol stations, and television – everything belongs to western investors.

Latvia advocates the myth that 20 years ago barehanded Latvian people defeated on the barricades a major empire with all its secret services and troops. In reality our Atmoda is a reflection of geopolitical processes and the struggle of two systems. The West decided to back President Yeltsin as he suited it most of all. The developments then went along a single scheme designed by the United States. Perestroika policy came to us from Moscow. Latvia became a laboratory of “color revolution” which was staged by the Popular Front and the government of Godmanis which in January 1991 deregulated prices and launched a shock therapy in the country .

Still to be done…

Which are the most painful problems of Latvia?

Ivars Godmanis: — Much has to be done to resolve social issues and raise the living standards in Latvia to the average European level. Most countries of the European Union are ahead in these two qualities – democracy and social protection. Honestly speaking, I did not think that banking and other crises could hit Latvia every seven-ten years. They seriously influenced the domestic situation.

Talavs Jundzis: — The Latvian Republic was first proclaimed in 1918 and reached a high level of prosperity by 1940. I thought that by restoring state independence we shall live in a well-off country in ten – maximum 15 years. Unfortunately, it did not happen. It is saddening! Yes, there are very rich people in Latvia but the average monthly wage comprises 417 lats (close to 800 US dollars). We occupy one of the lowest places in Europe by the indicator. Naturally, it is possible to consider the issue from another angle: Latvia is not the richest country of the European Union but it occupies the 47th place by the level of wellbeing in the list of 200 countries. Everything is relative. . .

We have to admit that our political system is inefficient and based on proportional election scheme. It exists in many European nations however it does not fit for such young democracies as Latvia because it allows many parties to have seats in parliament. That results in another major minus – constant partisan disputes on all vital issues and instability of the coalition government as a result. I would call it even political irresponsibility which does not allow to quickly and efficiently engage in reforms. It is not accidental that the idea of switching to a presidential republic takes hold in Latvia.

Janis Kucinskis: The current developments in our political life can be compared with the return of the country to the Middle Age when Latvians were completely rightless. I would recall that the First Republic emerged in 1918 right after the First World War and the revolution. The country was in ruins, but people worked hard and life gradually improved without IMF loans. In 1990 there was no ruin in the country. Latvia had no debts as Russia took them over. There was industry that could be upgraded. But it was intentionally ruined and Latvia became a backward country. To make a thousand domestic millionaires flourish hundreds of thousands of Latvians had to lose jobs and savings.

In my book New World Order and We I predicted in 2000 that we shall go in the European Union through the same thing which happened in the XIII century when Vatican blessed Baltic tribes that adopted Christianity to create their own states. The result was the cancellation of the rights of local peoples who found themselves in debt to Germans. It is not by chance that the house of Chernogolovykh has been restored in Riga which is a palace of German traders, that they began to praise Duke Jacob and excellent Swedish times. All signs in city streets are in English. U.S. economist Michael Hudson was right to say the European Union behaves itself in east European nations as in occupied territories with conquered enemies. The so-called Latvian political elite comprises compradors who act in the interests of foreign capital. It is only fantastic that a majority of Latvians continue to consider them “legitimate” government. Latvian Prime Minister Valdis Dombrovskis sincerely poses the collapse of national economy for a success history!

One country, two communities

Latvia failed to resolve the national issue in twenty years of independence. Society remains split into two communities. The country still has up to 300 thousand non-citizens. Who is to blame and what is to be done?

Ivars Godmanis: Non-citizens in Latvia have all possibilities to obtain citizenship. However if they do not want to then a democratic state cannot compel them to become citizens. There are interesting statistics: when a non-citizen passport did not allow to freely travel in Europe 15-16 thousand people annually naturalized. When the obstacle was lifted the number quickly dropped to 1-2 thousand a year. It is also to be taken into consideration that non-citizens enjoy simplified travel rules to Russia than Latvian citizens.

To obtain citizenship you have to speak Latvian language. It is natural as there is no European country where you can obtain citizenship without knowledge of the official language. For a state to be stable it should not hand out citizenship to everyone. However it should not freeze the problem either .

I believed for some time that a change of one generation will put an end to one-nationality parties in Latvia. I no longer think so. Most likely the ratio between Latvians and Russian-speakers 58/42 is the source for reproduction of the parties. However the growing integration of Latvia into the European Union will gradually decrease the national-political standoff.

Talavs Jundzis: — Political parties that have ruled all this time shall bear responsibility for the failed integration of society. The main thing which I am thinking about is the teaching of the Latvian language. Its knowledge is the main integration factor. To finally open Latvian language courses in Riga an ethnic Russian, Nil Ushakov, had to be elected its ma your four years ago.

Janis Kucinskis: We went broke in the ’90s. In order to stop us resisting the process authorities began to play off one community against the other, provoke language wars, and advocate a myth about the Russian threat in public conscience. It is a paradox, but Russians in Latvia are a stabilizing factor while the Latvian people are not united. Just imagine what can happen if they all disappear. Given the current attitude to people, the state and national interests we could begin to devour each other with major appetite and thus increase dependence on the West.

We are incapable of solidarity – either social or national. Therefore, it is possible to stage such experiments in Latvia. It is naturally unpleasant for Latvians that is some areas of the country they do not feel themselves full masters of the house because of ethnic composition of the population. If we trust what newspapers and online publications write there can be an impression that Latvians and Russians hate each other. However in real life ordinary people of different nationalities amicably co-exist. It is more frustrating that many people are emigrating from Latvia.

Emigrati on: peril or salvation?

In recent years over 200 thousand people emigrated from Latvia. Isn’t it a catastrophe for a nation with a population just over two million people?

Ivars Godmanis: Latvia exists within the European Union system which is characterized by a full freedom of choice – each person can decide where to live, work, and do business.

Naturally, there are countries in the European Union with living standards higher than in Latvia. People want to live better not in future, but now and therefore leave the country. I do not think we have the right to blame them. Such is the situation: many people took mortgage credits to buy an apartment or a house and then the crisis erupted and they had no money to repay the loans. Equaling living standards in various countries is a major policy of the European Union and Latvia is gradually progressing towards average European level. I believe emigration from Latvia will not increase. Do not forget that countries where Latvians go suffer from the crisis like we do.

Talavs Jundzis: It should not be perceived too dramatically. We have just begun to recover from the crisis. What would happen if the 200 thousand people who emigrated would remain in Latvia? What would happen then? Unemployment would be much higher and more budget appropriations would be necessary to pay the dole. Today Latvians abroad send money back to Latvia. Nobody knows how big the financial inflow is, but it is definitely substantial. This is the practical side of the issue.

But there is also the strategic side. Similar situation emerged in many countries of the world. President of the Chinese Academy of Sciences told me that many Chinese who emigrated from the country are now coming back with education they received in the United States and other countries and accumulated knowledge and experience. I will cite only one figure: 40% of professors in the United States are Chinese. I hope that people who left Latvia will soon come back with education diplomas and experience. And Latvia will enjoy the experience and education for free. . .

Janis Kucinskis: It is a fact that the country paid a very high price for complying with

Maastricht requirements: Latvians are dying out. People have to leave their native country as there is no food or work here. Social welfare programs exist in cities, while the countryside where most Latvians live is being destroyed. Over 500 residential settlements disappeared from the map of Latvia. There are abandoned houses, foreigners bought out land, schools and hospitals close down. Brussels supports the genocide policy because old European nations face a catastrophic demographic situation. Europeans need “slaves”, white-skin cheap labor which quickly assimilates. Our children educated at Latvian expense are most suitable for that. Our politicians did not conceal it in the ’90s saying Latvia will join global turnover due to cheap labor.

Union of equals or unified state ?

Do you think that modern Latvia – EU and NATO member — does not correspond to the independence model which many Latvians perceived in the ’90s? Latvia of the ’30s was a sample model for them — a national isolated state. Does the federation to which the EU has been striving of late kill national states?

Ivars Godmanis: — It is impossible to compare the developments 80 years ago with nowadays. The situation radically differed from the current one. In the ’30s national isolation could serve as the background for self-conscience growth. Latvia consumed what it produced. Today we live in a global world and can buy goods and services from anyone we want and sell goods and services to anyone. In such conditions isolation is inappropriate.

The dream of a national state develops into a different thing today. It is permanent

competition in conditions of open borders. Understanding of it is key for comprehending the situation. By cutting off from the world we can lose, firstly, the living standards and, secondly, own cultural and national traits. It is clear the European Union is working to make every member preserve its cultural and national traits. National identity of France, Germany, Spain, Italy and other countries has not disappeared and will not vanish. The same is true for our national priorities. EU federalism is the answer to the grave crisis that hit it. A number of European countries, including Latvia, were in a very bad plight. EU assistance saved Latvia, Greece, Portugal, and Ireland. The slogan of federalism is used like a banner today which tries to prove that it is better to live in a single state. But it is wrong as people who work better and earn more will not pay those who work worse.

I believe the European Union is moving towards efficient interaction among countries, but not to a federative state. I do not think the talk about federalism will have serious consequences specifically now when the European Union is recovering from the crisis.

Talavs Jundzis: I see the future of the European Union in a federative state, but on condition that national identity and variety are the values of the federative state. In modern world small economies cannot survive. We should not be afraid that Latvia – economically and politically – will be within a single democratic union. Variety of peoples is the wealth of the EU and there are no grounds for concern for our national identity. We succeeded to preserve our language and culture in the Soviet Union. Why should we lose them in the European Union?

I am skeptical about the future of the European Union in its current state. Modern Europe is not competitive. But I am an optimist about federative Europe. There is no escaping federative Europe. Life will compel us to make the choice.

Janis Kucinskis: The European Union is no union of sovereign states but rather a business project for the rich created to expand the sales market. Countries compete in it and the strong strangle the weak. No major decisions are adopted in Riga any longer. The Saeima and the government only adjust to local conditions the documents adopted in Brussels which determine the economic and social policy of the country. Even wages, pensions and allowances are agreed with international institutions. Up to 2004 the president of the Latvian bank and the prime minister first signed a memorandum with the International Monetary Fund and then had the commitments approved in Saeima. Now it is different! Fulfilling instructions from Brussels is our homework. Polls show that 70.9 percent of Latvians believe western nations are using the country in their own interests while 78.3 percent are convinced that Latvia is a secondtier country in the EU. Actions of current local authorities do not differ from what Pelshe and Voss did in Soviet times – to apple-polish bosses and career at the expense of misfortunes of their own people. In the same way the new authorities forge transition to “green” energy and make people pa y for inefficient production.

It is common knowledge that in 1940 Latvia switched to Soviet rubles. Today, 73 years later, the occupational lat is to be replaced by occupational euro. Nobody wondered then and wonders now what the people think about it. We are told the government does not interfere in market relations. But everything is done to strip Latvia of economic relations with Russia. Here is only one example: medicines from the east are taxed higher than from the west.

Our history shows that when Latvia was within the empire our countries traded intensively which resulted in economic growth. When economic ties were disrupted it triggered collapse. 54.4 percent of Latvian residents believe today that Latvia lived well in the USSR. 64.6 percent are convinced the future of the country is in close cooperation with Russia and other CIS nations. However the West is not interested in the data.

Olga Larina, Ina Oshkaya,

for Amber Bridge

The energy situation in three post-Soviet Baltic countries differs from each other. Latvia has fully exhausted the resources of the major Daugava River in the region as nothing can be added to the existing cascade of hydropower plants there. Estonia generates power at Narva hydropower plant and heat plants and also receives electricity from Finland. Experts call for the construction of a liquefied gas terminal. Lithuania shut down the Sovietbuilt nuclear power plant and there is talk about the construction of a new one. It seems Lithuania lags behind the cherished dream of energy independence most of all.

How can the goal be achieved?

Green, but unprofitable

“Green” energy and co-generation (combined production of electricity and heat) are the most promising types of energy. It is disappointing that the “green” energy support system, say in Latvia, is branded as “political business”.

The country remembers the recent story of the construction of small hydropower plants which “accidentally” got into the hands of the wives of high-ranking state officials. Today any production of bio energy is also linked in Latvia to businessmen who are close to authorities. One cannot but agree with Economy Minister Daniels Pavluts who called for reforms and transparent energy management system.

The economy ministry submitted to the government its initiatives aimed at introducing new transparent and efficient standards of support to renewable sources of energy and cogeneration. The EU works to increase the share of renewable energy in the total power end-use to decrease reliance on fossil fuel. Latvia has pledged to achieve 40% of renewable energy in the total balance by 2020. “I am convinced it is an important goal and we have to support alternative energy producers. However economic growth possibilities and improved wellbeing of people cannot be sacrificed for the sake of statistical indicators. We cannot allow Latvia to preserve inefficient and nontransparent system under the cover of movement towards the conditional EU goal. The system has already created a new elite of green speculators at the expense of the taxpayer,” the economy minister said.

The obligatory purchase principle is currently in force in Latvia to support “green” energy producers: Latvenergo utility has to pay for renewable energy and co-generation much more than the market price. The difference is paid by all end-users, i.e. by every resident of the country.

What is to be done in the situation?

Naturally, cost efficiency of production has to be improved and the policy of endless subsidies has to be gradually abandoned. Lithuania and Denmark guarantee support to electricity producers for ten years, Hungary – 8, Estonia provides its current 7-year discounted tariff to the plants operating with biomass and hydro energy. There is no other country in the EU besides Latvia that provides unlimited support to renew able energy.

“I hope that in 2020 when we assess the implementation of the National development plan we shall state that the dream about green, economically feasible and competitive Latvia has come true and was no disappointment,” said optimistic Daniels Pavluts.

Vysaginas sword

There is also atomic power besides alternative energy sources. The construction of the Vysaginas NPP is on the Lithuanian agenda. Initially it was planned to engage neighboring countries in the construction but Poland and Estonia delicately refused. The Latvian position remains unclear.

Visaginas is said to be very lucrative for Latvia, however nobody has provided any convincing evidence. Politicians and their close businessmen claim the co-ownership of the plant will provide cheap electricity to Latvian consumers. However nobody explains how it is possible to buy electricity below market prices. There is no answer how the used nuclear fuel will be disposed of. Who and where will keep it? The hypothetic Latvian billion euro suggested for investment into Vysaginas NPP can be used for other guidelines.

“Latvia has to invest a billion euro not into Lithuanian economy and the construction of Vysaginas NPP, but into its own economy,” said President of the gas company Itera Latvija Juris Savickis. Although he represents competing industry he supports not only the construction of Vysaginas NPP but also the nuclear power plants in Belarus and Kaliningrad enclave of Russia. But he insists Latvia has to limit itself by bids for partial assignments in the Vysaginas projec which will be fully controlled by Lithuania and the strategic partner – the Japanese Hitachi Corporation.

The nuclear project in Vysaginas is not just a power plant. It is a major and profitable project for Lithuania which will push the ailing economy from the deadlock. ” I know the neighbors and have no doubt that most orders for the NPP will remain in Lithuania and that Lithuanians will win the tenders. Everything which Lithuania is capable of producing for the NPP will be made in the country. Naturally, Lithuanians cannot make the turbine while uranium will be supplied by Americans who cooperate with Hitachi,” Savickis said. Who will control the whole project? Lithuanians and Hitachi. However Vilnius is interested in getting the Latvian billion euro. . .

What can Latvia build with the billion? For example, a big gas storage in Dobele and its own liquefied gas terminal. It is an expensive project but it will be owned by Latvia. The billion can be invested into “green” power. Besides power engineering there are related industries which need investments.

It is also important that Lithuanians did not support the NPP project at a consultative referendum held together with parliamentary election. The NPP was backed by 34.09 percent of voters while 62.68 were against.

Gas puzzle

Baltic countries have no commercial gas reserves and buy the fuel in Russia. In seven months of 2012 Latvia imported natural gas worth 400 million dollars which is a 24.5 percent increase against the same period in 2011, the central statistics service of the country said.

Gas to Latvia is imported by the Latvijas gāze Company which pumps it into the Incukalns storage and then delivers it to Latvian, Estonian, Russian, and Lithuanian consumers. Gas to Latvia is supplied by Gazprom and Itera Latvija which is a part of the international Itera Group. In 2011 the supplies were worth over 200 million dollars or 52.2 percent above the 2011 figure. Profit exceeded 16 million dollars and was 60.9 percent above previous indicators, according to the financial statement of the company.

Lithuanian Energy Minister Jaroslav Neverovic said his country wants to ensure competitive gas prices at talks with Gazprom. Key to the aim is the construction of a liquefied gas terminal. Lithuania wants to build it in Klaipeda in order to supply also Latvia and Estonia. Latvian experts believe it is more profitable to build the terminal in Latvia as it already has developed infrastructure and an underground storage in Incukalns. There is also a good site for a new storage on the border with Lithuania. According to research, the storage can decrease Baltic reliance on Gazprom from 100% to 59%.

There are alternative points of view in the dispute about the liquefied gas terminal. Thus, the Booz&Company consultancy believes it is more profitable to build it in Estonia or Finland rather than in Lithuania or Latvia.

Shale gas

The basic technology of shale gas production was borrowed by the Americans from Nazi Germany which had no oil and had to learn how to produce synthetic petrol from coal.

In Europe shale gas resources in-place are estimated between 19.4 and 91.4 trillion cubic meters. Extractable reserves are estimated at 15 trillion cubic meters. The U.S. Energy Information Administration puts the figure at 22.6 trillion.

The main shale gas deposits are located in northern Germany, France, Great Britain, Norway, Sweden, Poland, Ukraine, and Baltic countries while extractable reserves of the shale gas, according to the estimates of the U.S. administration, are accumulated in Poland (6.6 trillion cubic meters), France (6.4), Norway (2.9), Ukraine (1.5), Sweden (1.4), Denmark (0.8), and Great Britain (0.7 trillion cubic meters).

Main shale gas, gas and coalbed methane basins in Europe.

The estimates made over 40 countries prospect for shale gas in Europe close to consumption areas which minimizes transportation costs. They include Shell, Chevron, Exxon Mobil, Conoco Phillips, OMV, Halliburton and other giants. Poland, Hungary, Sweden, Spain, France, and England are experiencing a genuine shale gas boom triggered by the hope to repeat American shale gas revolution.

However there are skeptical voices as well.

Head of the British energy regulator Office of Gas and Electricity Markets Alister Buchanan said shale gas production was unlikely to begin in Europe earlier than 2025 and production volume can reach 15 billion cubic meters by 2030. BP estimated total European production of all nontraditional gas (shale, coalbed methane, etc) at 50 billion cubic meters by 2030. Therefore, imported gas will continue to play a major role in supplies for a long time. BP estimated it will account for 75 percent of gas consumption in the EU by 2030. Over a half (nearly 60%) will be supplied by pipelines.

Latvian scientists are in general skeptical about shale gas production in the country. However some politicians promise “to liberate” Europe from Russian natural gas at the expense of Latvian shale gas.

Latvian geologist Lyudmila Kartunova said Latvia is rich in all elements of the Mendeleev table. However, the entrails, like in most European countries, differ in structure from North America. It might be cheaper to fly to the Moon for some natural resources than produce them at home.

No sensations

Latvia plans to have a half of renewable energy in its balance by 2030. “At present Latvia produces first-generation biofuel from rape and grain. Production will continue for some time however the products do not satisfy durability criteria. Transition to second or even third generation of biofuel is expected by 2030. In 2017 Latvia may get a refinery to produce biofuel from wood,” said State Secretary of the Latvian economy ministry Juris Putse.

Properly purified rape seed oil used to produce biofuel is also suitable for food consumption although it depends on personal taste. Unfortunately, over a half of all fields in Latvia continue to grow the beautiful but very harmful plant for agriculture.

What do Baltic countries have to do to ensure energy independence? Anyway they shall not expect sensational solutions.

For example, Latvenergo plans to reconstruct the cascade of Daugava hydroelectric power plants by 2021 and replace all 21 turbines to increase their capacity. By now eight out of ten turbines of the Plavinas hydropower plant and four out of seven turbines of Keguma plant have been reconstructed. Investments exceeded 200 million dollars but will generously repay.

Prospects to reduce prices are offered by the planned construction of three nuclear power plants which is too many for the small region.

Wind turbines are promising on the sea coast.

What else? There are forests and marshes, wood and peat. However firewood would hardly keep the region warm.

Valery Zaitsev,

Valery Gorbov,

for Amber Bridge